Critical analysis.
Right. We have to fight our battle on our own shoulders without expecting any help from the USA.
America is presently in a weak economic situation and would like to tilt the balance of trade in its favour. Obama's three days visit to China aims in this direction. USA can't afford to offend China to achieve this purpose.
Other issues prtaining to India, may be important, but will draw attention of USA when its own goals are fulfilled.
Till then India ekla chalo re!

Mr Vijay
This is bad news, but not entirely unexpected. Obama's hostility to India, with his continual rants against Bangalore, is well documented. China is emboldened by this stance. In case of a possible Sino-Indian-Pak conflict over Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir, by 2011, expect Obama and the Democrats to side with China.
India has to walk alone.
Now we will see the folly of alienating old friends and bending over to win unreliable ones.

Nice article Mr. Tarun after long time. Nice thoughts.

Excellent article. India should no longer rely on support from Washington on conflicts with China and the future Indian foreign policy will have to revolve around US-China equation.

Very nice article Tarun ji.Intelligent move from Obama team as he doesn't wants more fronts at one time and showing wooing policy unlike Bush team who was opening new fronts and working with divided attensions to different fronts at time with confronting policy.At this time when US dollar is going down as compare to international market and unemployment more than 10% in USA, Obama is more concerned about the USA economy diplomatically, rather than other issues which are responsible for this plight of USA upto some extent, so wooing emotionaly the asian countries by showing his ties to different countries which are not considered while making the policies but still gives good signs. Obama Aministration may be neglacting the Dalai Lama and india at this time just to appease china as growing economically and militarially, knowingly that china can be the second pole in this unipolar world after collapse of USSR.This all is indicating that hard days may be on the way for india, and being more practicle this is a litmus test for Manmohan singh and his team that how they will face this to secure his respect and position internationally.

We can in no situation expect US to come to our help be it with China or with Pakistan. In case of China the US policy is still understandable as having economic motives. With Pakis it is totally muddled. On one end they provide all the money and ammunition to Pak, which they use to train jihadis and other terrorist outfits. On the other they keep increasing there troupes to fight these terrorists. No other country could make sucha fool of themselves as this most powerful nation has done. I give a lot of credit to Pakis to make US look stupid. They have made Americans sponsor "TERROR" and "WAR On TERROR" and have made money in both.

A superb criical analysis of the ongoing us-china salsa. I guess india will face the toughest time in its independent history in the coming decades when it will have to single-handedly deal with an aggressive sino-pak nexus. I really doubt whether uncle sam or any european power would be willing to stand by us, considering the fact that they are already singing paeans to china. So we will hav to fight our own battle. Lets tighten our belt, fellow indians!!

Very good analysis. I am sceptical of Obama from the Very beginning as he was talking about how jobs were heading to Bangalore. He never did mentioned anything about those leaded toys from China. The way he neglected Dalai Lama and his visit to communist China and not India showed he is only interested in his national goals, his utter disregard for democracy, Human rights and pres freedom is disgusting. In Japan, he talked about importance of Human rights in Burma but said nothing about China. Shame Obama, you did not deserve Nobel.

History has proved that China is most unreliable in its relations with India.Now even USA also going all out to appease China for economic consideration it is high time indian Govt.see the motives and take appropriate position .

HI,

Obama will be one term president and the problem with US is the greed of US companies for profit which is hurting US citizens and this can be solved by putting stop to chinese imports .America can live without chinese imports but china cannot live without america consumers. China needs now an enemy which can divert its people problems from decreasing demand for its goods and India fits the bill. well we should get more Nuclear missiles and nuclear subs it is that simple.

I am not sure where economy is going(almost stalled right now), but, I believe it is the time when all should be concerns along with Mr. Obama and hold the hands togather by keeping difference aside(even if it means not shaking Dalai Lama's hand today). With ongoing Afganistan and Iraq war expenses and not a significant improvement at home, I am not clear on what Obama is trying to achieve in his international tour. Obama may have to take some drastic position even it may not be favourable for his re-election to become President but, chaotic, unfocussed and dellusion republicans are not in good position either to bring economy back and have remote chances of winning the next election as their hard headed overly conservative reppublicans cost them two wars and still fighting and have that big hole in pocket(irony-Creating future security at risk by creating big holes in pocket). Also, India has lot to worry. 54% of India's economy is from service(including BPO, sw dev etc) which is a parasite economy and industrial and agricultural sector contribute 29% and 17% respectively with 1.2 trillion dollar GDP according to Wikipedia whereas 40.1% of China's economy is a service, 48.6% is a industry and 11.3% from agriculture with $4.32 trillion dollar GDP. At least Obama is doing something but we are not doing enough and still behaving like parasites to take country to next level with the boost we got(Oh wait we do something. We nourish hypocrates like Mr. Raj Thackerey by making 300 crores with non-Marathi partners and then pushing Marathi on SBI and who will forget great minister Mr. Koda)

thank god You woke from your fanatic Religious dream and now you see the real threats to India.

India should win over, the trust of it neighbers and NAM and become a third pole which the world cant ignore.

Well, China is holding trillions in USD, and if they off-load that, both nations will suffer. So its a mutual understanding ... until China is able to buy more yellow metal for itself, like India did two weeks ago, they need each others company. If the dollar collapses, many nations holding USD, will go down with it !! Simple truths ..........

Dear Tarunji,
A lovely write up.
I am reminded of Mughal period when we were busy in infighting where as Europe was busy in industrial revolution and developing new arms and ammunition of the day. The same is true today. Our politicians are busy in increasing their vote banks at the cost of county’s security. They are all there to sell the country. THIS IS NOBODY’S COUNRTY, IF IN THE PAST IT WAS LOOTED BY INVADORS; TODAY IT IS LOOTED BY OUR OWN LEADERS. We don’t have a single political leader who can take on to China. Our political leadership is sadly mistaken that US will come to our rescue in case of a boarder skirmish with China. President Obama’s six day long tour to China should work as an eye opener to India. US turns deaf ears to China’s human rights violation and religious freedom rights, where as it is more than eager to twist India’s arms at the slightest human right violation. We are so DARPOK that we can not utter anything against China. We have very politely and humbly accepted the merger of Tibet into China, whereas China till today regards J&K and Arunachal Pradesh as a disputed territory. Which age is our political leadership living in? Times are not far off when China will attack hard and snatch away Arunachal Pradesh. And we as usual will swallow our humiliating defeat. We don’t have Indians in our political leaders; we only have looters of the country. WAKE UP POLITICIANS TO SEE GEOPOLITICAL SCENERIO OF THE WORLD.

The fundamental problem is that we Indians perceive ourselves as weaklings and lack confidence required of a "rising superpower". We are like an elephant who is chained from childhood and therefore does not break away, not realizing that the chain has remained the same, but he has grown many times stronger. And the fundamental reason for our weakness are well known: a "feudal" mindset that continues to prefer status quo and a rule of "THE Royal Family" descendant over a self - made leader, and the society divided by 'secular' political formations using weapons of caste and religion. Such a nation can never claim it's rightful place on world map. This is exactly what Vinayak Damodar Savarkar had foreseen almost a hundred years back.

China is a powerful country both economically and militarily. It has the largest military and is a big market for America. That is why America is more interested in China than in India which is not a big market for the former. To attract America's and in fact, world's attention, we have to become strong both economically and militarily. For this we require money but the Govt. exchequer remains unfilled because of corruption, tax evasion and smuggling. Once, we have a strong Govt. which can check corruption, tax evasion and smuggling etc., we too can have more money for building a mighty military as well as can have more people who have the money to buy American goods. However, our Govt. is too weak and even lethargic. It does not listen to any sane reasoning unless its existence is threatened by people like Maoists. Media also starts covering the grievances of the tribal people only when Maoists become a threatening force. My point is whether it is necessary to take to violent course to get oneself heard in our democracy. Should our Government not be more sensitive and think about making us strong both militarily and economically.

Tarunji;
An intelligent analysis. And a nice article. As you mentioned world has recognized the economic strength of China coupled with their military might. Pakistan with it non state actors policy (State sponsored Terrorism) has managed to put gun on the head of America as well as China and forced them to give financial and military aid.
Where as Mandarins and policy makers in Delhi are still looking to America. Even to solve crimes committed in our land by Pakistanis. Why we can not understand a simple thing America has sold itself to China and price was cheap plastic goods / toys, hosiery and garments. This 1.3 billion people must learn to stand on their own leg and must stand tall enough to be recognized as a nation. Instead we are Hindus, Muslims, Christian, Upper cast, Lower Cast, back wards, forwards an endless list of division. And all of this is manipulated by the opportunistic present day politicians. They’ve plundered the nation in sixty years up to the extent that British and Portuguese could not achieve in two or three hundred years.

Only a united India can develop and progress to the extent that would enable it to face future challenges from any quarters. Hope the Sangh Parivar realises this sooner than later and stop its Indian Muslim-hating policies as well as play positive role in uniting all Indians regardless of creed and caste.

diwali was celebrated at the White House with a barbeque featuring Brahmin beef and mutual congratulations on the American success in blowing smoke up the collective Indian fundamental orifices during the negotiations on the nuclear treaty.
Hindu India is a great poseur on the world stage and in reality is poor third world country with poor infrastructure,poor social services, imbedded bigotry and corruption, an indifference to the pursuit of excellence and an indifference to fairplay and human rights. Many people just consider you as argumentative a---holes.

I agree with ismail's comments on NAM.
Also,populism/vote bank politics is a big problem in my opinion.As an example -while during the current recession,China went on a buying(businesses/properties) spree around the world during recession,the establishment in India spent previous Rs.86,000 crore on Sixth pay commission!

US has to follow what india did during Indira's period,That is be american buy american.
It has to stop giving aids to countries like pakistan,who playing cat &mouse game with US and Taliban/Quaida.
US can not escape from these mongers from pakistan,,They have to fight them till their extinguistion which is only at the end of pak and china.

Excellent analysis. I have been waiting for such posts. Keep Rocking Tarunji........

The future is for Islam. In a few decades the world will inshAllah see the steep rise of one of the Islamic countries.

Ziauddin Shafi is wrong about Sangh, because Sangh is against only Muslims who consider themseles Muslims first and Indians later. Why don't you join the Sangh and find it out first hand. Regarding the article itself, Tarunji you hit the nail on the head.

this is for zaiuddin shafi, my dear dont blame sangh parivar first you people mend your ways and stop bombing the land you live in. then say things about others. you are the creators of all the problems (against vande mataram, against hindus, love jihad and the list goes on.) first look at the mirror and see the dirt in you then blame others because its the result of your evil that today the world is up against you.

Tarunji, excellent analysis of the present economic situation of America. We, unnecessary, need not to blame President Obama for the international relations which he is trying to make with Russia/ China/Japan etc.
President Obama is great Nationalist. He will have to think in the interest of his country first. When he took over, what was economic condition of America. Banks were closing down. 115 banks closed down in the last one year, due to the wrong economic policies of his predecessors. Unemployment was reaching to it's heights.He was elected by the American Junta on the promise that he will bring the American economy back on the rails. This is what he is trying to do.What's wrong?
Coming to relations with China, USA has big interest in China, because China is a big market for ir's products and China has HUGE INVESTMENTS IN USA IN TERMS OF SECURITES. And that can not be over looked.
As far as India is concerned, we are only getting jealous but doing a little to help ourselves.How much our leaders are interested to uplift this country. See the amount of corrution our leaders are involved. Every day, there is news coming about one or the other Neta involved in the corrution directly or indirectly.
When we are not ready to help ourselves, why should we expect others to help you. Did not America helped you during the Chinese aggression in 1962, despite all the negations of then PM.
Did not Russia helped you ( by sending fleet in the Pacific - shadowing American fleet.)
We will have to have a relook to what we plan to do.Lot of introspection is required.
We will have to rectify our mistakes of the past, like Souvereignity of Tibet.
We need to build a National Character.Make the country strong Economically/Diplomatically/ Militarily. Let other countries know you mean business.
America and Russia both want to help you(india)provided you really deserve it.Every country has to keep it's national interest first.
So let us not blame President Obama.

The biggest problem of India is not China or Pakistan but our own corrupt and fat politicians and sarkari servants, who do very little and they want all Indians to pay for them for their shabby and little performance.
Let us rise against this corrupt class and limit their power to exploit our prvate sector. Let us compel our politicians to bring black money back from foreign accounts. Let us fight bribery demands with full force. As we create a corruption and crime free society, a communist country like China which has very poor record on freedom and human rights will be thrown in a dust bin by all those who matter in this world.

Nice article Mr Tarun,
India should learn a lesson from china. India has bad realations with all its neighbors and Indias foreign policy is a big disaster.
Bad relation with china, with bangladesh, srilanka and pakistan
what china did is this, they build a dam in gawadar pakistan and all indias navy strategy has become upside down with this port.
china also built a port for bangladesh, they also built a port in srilanka also.
all these contracts has been taken by china.
Indian are only busy in communal voilence and caste politics. Indinas have a very micro outlook.Tthey are ' Kumwee ke maindek"

I am wondering you have not included your hatred for muslims in any form and I am seeing it first time.. Keep it up..

A very good analysis.
I hope our Foreign Strategy 'Think Tank' at North Block are reading this. :)
Can anyone suggest how can I join them?, so that I can work to uplift the status of my country as a Powerful nation if not in world then atleast in Asia, so that its not ignored by the West.
If someone wants to suggest..please respond on my email rahultrivedi007@gmail.com

One notices that the president of the USA's Asian visit does not include India and this can only mean:
(a) India does not have the clout that it thinks it has in world affairs
(b)The Americans think that they have Indian complicity to approve all American policy after Indian complicity and acquiscence to the nuclear deal just concluded; India can now be considered a fawning spaniel awaiting a condescending tickle on the belly from her American masters.
(c) the real sources of power are in East Asia and India can hardly provide its people with the security they need and is fraught with insurrection in many places in its realm such that it is just a poseur in the world power stakes.
(d) India has little stroke so that a small country like Australia refuses to sell it the U3 O8 that it needs to pursue its industrial ambitions unless it signs the NNPT while supplying China with copious amounts of this essential.

Obama goes to China; what are implications to India- not necessarily good, not necessarily bad. It entirely depends how we handle it. The fulcrum of USA foreign policy rests on its ‘own interest’- economic, political or military. This is true for any country, only USA declares it openly- we do not have permanent friend, we do not have permanent enemy; we only have permanent interests. Against this background, it is easy to see that Obama ought to go to China to ease the rising trade deficit and all related problems thereof. Had Indian been exporting to USA been five times more than importing from USA, Obama would have visited India. Not a rocket science- it is all about “interest”. India, having secured potential to solve their energy hunger with the Nuclear deal (by the way, USA also has interest in seeing that nuclear plants in India are built; otherwise their corporations would lose $10 billion worth of business) and having strong march on path of greater economic prosperity; it should avoid any military conflict with any country for at least next 10 years (hopefully, forever). With this as a thought, I propose that closer relationship between Beijing and Washington is not necessarily a threat to India. Having an acquaintance, who is also friend of your advisory, is an asset, if used wisely. Having an additional channel of communication in the form of USA to talk more constructively with China can be turn into advantage.

The US has a harder time dealing with India because India is free, democratic and pluralistic. And hence legitimate. Pakistan nor even China are legitimate. One is just a military oligarchy, the other a combination of massive investments, including American investments, and massive state power.

Write an article condemning the attrocities and masscares committed by the hindus on muslims,sikhs,christians and dalits, then only you can be called a non-communal secular person.

Great article Mr. Vijay! Really thought provoking. But I feel America was never a friend of us and they will not be a friend of us in future. Russia was our friend but we left them for USA. Very sad. You mentioned rightly India has to fight its war on its own. Given the present scenario no one will come to help India. So only one way is there. To become stronger militarily and economically. To achieve these goals we need reliable politicians who will think of our country. But that day seems like a dream. Lets hope for the best. Hopefully our politicians will think of our country first and about their pockets later.

Two important observations of the world's most powerful nations:

1) Always from the north (from Sweden to Canada to Russia to America, Japan, China, Germany)
2) Along either Pacific and Atlantic ocrean

All the nations along Indian ocrean belong to the most backward nations in the world, at least today (Africa, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand ...)

Idealogies that proclaim exclusive access to the Universal God and guardians of God's will on earth are fundamantaly facist in nature. This is the reason Hinduisms proclaimation of multiple paths to the divine is found to be the most threatning to the fanatics that proclaim exclusivism of Gods grace. For them Hinduism is in fact the last-man standing ..and the battle for humanity's sanity is now entering a decisive phase. The best way to intellectualy fight religious facism is to boldly proclaim the self-evident truth of diverse human spirituality that Hindu sages have spoken for thousands of years.

The predicament Nehru faced in the context of Tibet was to admit which of the lesser evils to Tibet. The imperialist forces or the Red Army. India was unable to tackle both and did not want to succumb to allainces, which he realised would either splinter India or subjugate its polity. Both were unacceptable and the only option available then was ambiguous diplomacy until the scientific and technological capabilities were attained to defend India.

The non-containment policy of Prez Obama comes after recent demarche on Arunachal Pradesh from China. It looks like US and China are working in tandem.

The response to this stance ought to Nehruvian, which would be upholding international law. Indian diplomats have wisely chosen Iran as the counter pressure point. As long as Iran is willing to recognize Israeli boundaries in 1948, supporting Iranian stance would add to Indian security.

It was another 'Himalayan blunder' by Manmohan Singh to crawl under the feet of US and alienate Russia. I can not understand how Indians say that India is a 'world power' ? Since 1947, Indian leaders have never cared or protected Indian interests or territory. When Indian leaders and media talk of make LoC as borders and settling Arunachal borders etc, India has already lost half the war. Sadly, today, India is not taken seriously but treated with contempt. Indians are beaten up and insulted in every country but Chinese are respected and feared. Indian politicians, mainly Congress, have pulled India in sewer, Just look at the present leadership, always crawling, cowering with folded hands, unable to make even one sentence properly. Indian education system is bankrupt and creates babus only, meritorious students have to go overseas to study. Total efforsts in this country is to protect dynasties and chairs nation can go to hell. BJP was the only hope but that hope is also fading.

Tarun, good analysis. Military and terrorism issues are motivation factors for American public. Economy is massive hygiene factor. Obama is quite sure of this. He is aware he cannot win another term if he does not solve the economy issue. For him, China and India are two fighting neighbours, neither of them he wants to displease. He talked to Singh and sat with him when G20 met in order to understand the economy issues. He is now appeasing China to tell them how important they are for America's economy. He knows both countries are back offices for America but bickering neighbours in Asia, far away from their land. Even if China wages a war with India, nothing changes for America. as long as India functions as a proper back office, it is OK, else forget it. China has the power to survive the war, if waged against India. So why will Obama care about India.

Remember, his purpose is fixing American economy and win next term. He will do anything that is right for him -- if it is required he will also paint communism as the best form of government. India cannot go too far just by bending its back to please America. We have to set our political house in order. We lack national will to come out of nepotism, corruption, sychophancy, dynastic leadership and treachery is part of our blood. Unless we rectify our systems, India does not deserve more attention than being given for a back office.

I still cant believe India ended up supporting Obama over McCain when McCain when was one of the most pro-indian presidents after Bush. McCain was pro-outsourcing, wanted to take a strong line against pakistan and more importantly he was going to play hard ball with the Chinese in regards to their military spending and currency regulation. We as Indians are always pretty emotional and tended to side with Obama because of the "wow" factor associated with the first black president.

1. First we need to stop being a wimp wrt China and not get cowed down by Chinese bullying.
2. INCREASE import duty on all Chinese goods, but have free trade with other free world nations.
3. Chinese are following a "beggar thy neighbor" according to Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman by artificially keeping their currency low and choking of other Asian manufacturers.
4. The only way to act with China is to be tough.
5. The earlier we realize this the better.
6. Last but not the least our politicians should turn their attention from petty communal and regional politics and use all their skills to global politics and make India a power to reckon with.

Get used to it Tarun!India will not be included in the American President's visit to Asia as there is no need for a punkah wallah when the President is discussing important world affairs with the Chinese

Self-reliance both militarily and economically is the only option available to India. Stop trusting USA and restart our good relation with Russia. Above all, declare an emergency for 10 years and put the country under one good patriotic Indian to develop a good internal discipline, patriotism and overall balanced growth and most importantly oneness among Indians. Learn to face boldly the world leaders and never accept Chinese domination in the region. Create Tamil Nation in Srilanka and destroy communism in Nepal. Then even if not superpower, you can walk holding your head straight up. We need a leader like Indira! who is there? Sonia, Rahul or Atul - all jokers. If communists are not changing their way of thinking towards China, teach them or ban them.

I remind the words of chinese foreign minister."We'll respond to india, the way india designed". Chinese prove themself as geneius in diplomacy, we were thinking US with us always....But now....The truth is Economic power is stronger than military power.India must learn more from China in diplomacy,Iam waiting for New Delhi's Response.....

Its a good article and need of the hour, we should stand on our own. By supporting US, we forget our old friend Russia. We should change our foreign policy.

Nice article.
Obama should have got the nobel prize in economics. He is very effectively selling Indian interests to China.
Today Tibet is a part of china, tomorrow for opening some more chinese markets, arunachal will be a part of China!

price list:

1) American burgers, fries => China to play role in Indo-pak relations

2) American automobiles => China is our buddy, India, lets meet in washington, no time now.

3) Chinese help on North korea, Iran => India, weaky-softy, sign the CTBT, NPT

4) Continue American hegemony and $ as reserve currency => Arunachal is Chinese territory.

It is high time that we have a planned foreign policy as per our strength & weakness. The media should start providing more analytical input to provide transparency to the public about where India actually stand, rather than going for masala news.I think It is one primary responsibility of the media.

Dear Sir,
Us will never come to the rescue of India. President Obamas visit to China and his statement that Tibest is an integral part of China is a rebuff to India. we should understand well that US will ever come to our rescue.China and US are better friends as compared to US and India's friendship.High time for us to under the hidden the geopolitical situation of the world.

Obama realises that in the world of real politic it is the Chinese who count and there is no room for posing punkah wallahs at the head table and that is why he is not wasting his time by visiting India.
India is not a super power but a poor third world country with a veneer of democracy, racked by internal armed insurrection, unable to provide its citizens with adequate security ,decent infrastructure ,social services, and the freedom from corruption and entrenched bigotry. The moral capital that India once had died with Ghandi in1949.

India should wary more about china than pakistan,because chines have been supporting pakistani for their heneous act crime against india.

America always thinks pragmatically because it serves better to its needs.We should also follow the same principles if it serves interests of India.But it is difficult because US is a mighty country while we are not.

Why is Tarun exempt from from doing the simple maths questions before posting his blog?

US, China, Arunachal..well we have heard and perceived a lot about this. Arent we done with perceptions yet? tarun, you are good at placing things on table and putting them to bits n pieces to understand well, but go a step further dude, suggest a solution as to how Bharat can stand tall against all the odds and win? How do we as Bhartiyas take care of our country on our own?

I just want to say China never takes India as an enemy,China wants to be your friend.Sino-India War in 1962 is history.we need go forward.elephant+drangon=superpower......I am a chinese ,I am glad to make friends with you......mosqueto@msn.cn.